Feb 21–23, 2026 · Based on Polymarket prediction odds
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Expected inches
Forecast over time
Connecting to Polymarket...
About this forecast
This gauge pulls live odds from a
Polymarket prediction market
on how many inches of snow will fall in NYC, Feb 21–23, 2026.
How the number is calculated
Each outcome bucket (e.g. "8–10 inches") has a midpoint and a live
implied probability from Polymarket. The probabilities are normalized
to sum to 100%, then a weighted average is computed:
E[inches] = ∑(probi × midpointi)
The "20+ inches" bucket uses a midpoint of 22 inches. The needle and
arc opacity both update every 30 seconds.
Notes
Polymarket prices reflect crowd belief, not meteorological models.
The market resolves based on Central Park official snowfall
measurements.
Prices shown are CLOB midpoints, not last-trade prices.